How Long Will Thailand Remain Under Its Repressive Military Rule?

The top diplomat for Southeast Asia, Scot Marciel, voiced concern over censorship of media and the Internet and detentions and intimidation of hundreds of political figures, academics, journalists, online commentators and peaceful protesters. He was testifying at a congressional hearing Tuesday on the threat to democracy in Thailand, the oldest U.S. ally in Asia.

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"Initially, we held out hope that – as happened with the 2006 coup – the military would move relatively quickly to transfer power to a civilian government and move towards free and fair elections," said Scot Marciel, the U.S. principal deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia.

"However, recent events have shown that the current military coup is both more repressive and likely to last longer than the last one," he added.Marciel said in testimony to the Asia-Pacific subcommittee of the House Foreign Affairs Committee that the coup had put the United States in a difficult position, given that Thailand is a key U.S. ally in Asia.

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"We do not believe that true reconciliation can come about through fear of repression," he told of a House subcommittee that oversees U.S. foreign policy toward Asia. "The deep-rooted underlying issues and differences of opinion that fuel this division can only be resolved by the people of Thailand through democratic processes."

"The challenge facing the United States is to make clear our support for a rapid return to democracy and fundamental freedoms, while also working to ensure we are able to maintain and strengthen this important friendship and our security alliance over the long term," he said.

He said the United States would continue to urge for the martial law to be lifted and elections to be held sooner than a vague 15-month timeline laid out by the military government.

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However, he added: "To be honest, it's very hard to predict how long they are going to stay in power." Until there is a return to elected government, "we will not be able to do business as usual," Marciel said.

As required by U.S. law, Washington has frozen $4.7 million of security-related assistance since the coup and cancelled high-level engagements, some military exercises and training programs for the military and police.

Marciel said Washington had yet to make a decision on the Cobra Gold exercises planned for early next year in Thailand, which he called "hugely important ... not only for Thailand and the United States, but for the region. It's something we're looking at. We have a little bit of time to work with."

He added: "It could clearly send the wrong message if we allowed (Thailand) to participate."

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Washington has also yet to decide whether Thailand would receive a presidential waiver on sanctions - including withdrawal of U.S. support at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank - that could be imposed what it sees as Bangkok's failure to deal with human trafficking, Marciel said.

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The U.S. State Department last week downgraded Thailand to its lowest rank in a survey of countries' efforts to eliminate trafficking, placing it alongside states such as North Korea, Syria and Uzbekistan.

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