How Drier Weather Could Impact Food Prices and Supply

As we wrap up 2026, Malaysia is preparing for a strengthening El Niño event. According to the Malaysian Meteorological Department, this weather pattern is expected to stick around until May 2027 . While it is currently at a moderate level, there is a high chance it will become "very strong" between late 2026 and early 2027, which will significantly change our weather .

What's happening with our weather?

Data from the Malaysian Meteorological Department shows that El Niño is heating up, with sea surface temperatures rising by +2.2°C as of late September 2026 .

Right now, we are in the Inter-Monsoon Phase, which usually brings thunderstorms and flash floods. However, because of El Niño, we should expect much drier conditions across many parts of the country by early 2027 .

The impact of long dry spells

Climate change is making extreme weather, like heatwaves and water shortages, much worse in Malaysia .

We already saw the effects earlier this year. During the first half of 2026, dry spells hit our farmers hard. Paddy yields in Kedah, Perlis, and Perak dropped by over 60% compared to normal years . This shows just how vulnerable our food supply and water resources are to these shifting weather patterns .

Looking ahead: What's the plan?

Beyond the immediate weather, Malaysia faces long-term risks like rising sea levels and more frequent floods .

While the government has pledged to cut carbon intensity by 45% by 2030, experts are still debating whether our current energy transition plans are enough . Since climate-related disasters have become more frequent since 2024, there is a growing need for a stronger national strategy to protect our homes, infrastructure, and livelihoods .